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HOLD with 10% potential upside
8 October 2026
Price Rp 4,620
Target Price Rp 5,070
Investment Consideration
Higher Tin Prices and Production Growth Drive Earnings Expansion
- TINS sustained its strong operational momentum in 2Q26. In 1H26, tin ore production rose 75% YoY to 12,232 tons Sn, refined tin production increased 58% YoY to 10,865 metric tons, and refined tin sales grew 85% YoY to 10,984 metric tons.
- In 2Q26 alone, tin ore production reached 5,920 tons Sn (+57% YoY; -6% QoQ), refined tin output 5,235 metric tons (+39% YoY; -7% QoQ) and sales volume 4,975 metric tons (+63% YoY; -17% QoQ).
- ASP averaged USD 49,794 per ton in 1H26 (+52% YoY), implying about USD 50,486 per ton in 2Q26 (+3% QoQ). The LME cash settlement price averaged USD 50,319 per ton in 1H26, up 56.7% YoY.
- Market fundamentals remain supportive. Global refined tin deficit in 1H26 (production 173,536 tons vs consumption 179,256 tons), while demand from AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors, EVs and energy storage keeps growing. However, LME inventories rose 58% YTD to 8,575 tons at end-June 2026, signalling some supply recovery.
- Management targets tin production of 30,000 metric tons in 2026 (+61% YoY) and sales of 25,000 metric tons (+50% YoY). 1H26 sales of 10,984 metric tons represent 44% of the full-year sales target.
2Q26: Margins Sustained at Elevated Levels
- 1H26 revenue reached IDR 10.42 trillion (+147% YoY). 2Q26 revenue was IDR 4.95 trillion, up 134% YoY but 9% lower QoQ on lower sales volume.
- 2Q26 cost of revenues rose 81% YoY to IDR 3.01 trillion. Gross margin held at 39% (2Q25: 22%; 1Q26: 39%) as higher ASP continued to outpace cost inflation. Operating expenses rose to IDR 364 billion (+57% QoQ), bringing operating margin to 32% from 34% in 1Q26.
- 2Q26 net income was IDR 1.21 trillion (+563% YoY; -19% QoQ), with a net margin of 25%. 1H26 net income reached IDR 2.71 trillion (+805% YoY), 66% of our 2026F forecast of IDR 4.07 trillion. 1H26 EBITDA was IDR 3.90 trillion (+363% YoY; margin 37.4%).
- Cost pressures are building. 1H26 royalty expense rose to IDR 1.03 trillion from IDR 0.22 trillion in 1H25, reflecting higher prices and volumes, and fuel costs rose 39% YoY to IDR 312 billion. Management had guided for cash costs of about USD 21,000–21,500 per ton (1Q26: USD 21,499). Upside risks remain from the proposed mineral royalty framework and higher non-subsidized diesel prices (up from IDR 14,000 to IDR 24,000 per liter).
- Beyond tin, TINS is exploring rare earth elements (REE) through a cooperation agreement with PT Perusahaan Mineral Nasional (PERMINAS) on processing tin slag, monazite and REE in Bangka Belitung, effective 20 May 2026. The project is at an early stage, and access to processing technology remains a key challenge.
Valuation: HOLD, TP 5,070
- We downgrade TINS to HOLD from BUY with target price of IDR 5,070 per share. After the share price rallied to IDR 4,620 (7 October 2026), our TP implies 10% upside. We still view strong tin prices, rising production volumes, improving profitability and favorable long-term supply-demand fundamentals as supportive, but see limited upside at current levels. Our target price implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5x (2027F). Upside risks include further tin price strength and 2H26 earnings above expectations, as 1H26 net income already reached 66% of our 2026F forecast.