12 June 2025

Price Rp 1,175

Tin Price Up, Volumes Down, But Profits Shine, TP1,540

Investment Consideration

Production Declines Due to Weather Disruptions

Tin production fell sharply in Q1 2025 as weather conditions disrupted operations. Tin metal output declined -30.8% YoY to 3,095 metric tons, and tin ore production dropped -40% YoY to 3,215 tons Sn. Tin metal sales volume also decreased -18.4% YoY to 2,874 MT.

Despite lower volumes, global supply disruptions pushed tin prices higher. The average selling price (ASP) of tin metal rose +20% YoY to USD 32,495 per MT, up from USD 27,071 in Q1 2024.

The LME tin price peaked in March at USD 35,900 per ton and hit a new high of USD 37,921 in April 2025 due to supply constraints from Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DRC. After a dip in May triggered by U.S. tariff hikes, prices began recovering in June on optimism over U.S.–China trade relations.

TINS targets 2025 production of 21,500 MT (+13.6% YoY) and sales volume of 20,500 MT (+17% YoY).

Q1 2025: Bottom Line Jump

Revenue rose +2% YoY to IDR 2.09 trillion in Q1 2025, supported by higher tin prices despite lower volumes. Cash costs rose +21% YoY to USD 20,901 per MT due to reduced production. However, management expects costs to fall to USD 18,000 per MT by year-end as output improves.

Net income surged +296% YoY to IDR 117 billion, though it fell -58% QoQ due to seasonally high Q4 2024 results. Net profit margin rose to 6%, up from 1% in Q1 2024.

We project FY2025 net income to reach IDR 1.13 trillion, driven by stronger ASP and improving margins.

Valuation: Tin Price Up, Volumes Down, But Profits Shine, TP1,540

We maintain our BUY recommendation for TINS, with a target price of IDR 1,540 per share. This implies 31% upside and an EV/EBITDA of 3x, supported by strong tin pricing and higher expected production.