Global Market Update
- On September 6th, 2024, the US 10-Year Government Bond yield closed at 3.7080%, a decrease of 1.89-bps compared to the previous close, hitting a 6-month low.
- Japan’s economy grew by 2.9% YoY in Q2-2024, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.1% and market expectations of 3.2%. This marks a strong recovery from the 2.4% contraction in Q1 and the fastest growth since early 2023, driven by a rebound in private consumption after wage increases averaging 5.17%, the highest in over 30 years.
- China’s annual inflation rose to 0.6% in August 2024 from 0.5% in July, below the 0.7% forecast. It was the highest since February, due to supply issues from extreme weather. Food prices increased for the first time since June 2023, with fresh vegetables seeing the fastest rise in 19 months at 2.8%.
Sources: Cabinet Office – Japan, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg, and Trading Economics.
Domestic Market Update
- On September 9th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond Yield closed at 6.6833%, marking a small increase of 0.7-bps compared to Friday, while the ICBI reached its highest close at 391.655.
- Bank Indonesia’s August 2024 Consumer Survey shows higher confidence in the economy, with the Consumer Confidence Index rising to 124.4 from 123.4 in July. This increase is driven by optimism about current economic conditions, especially income levels, and stronger expectations for future income.
- Car sales in Indonesia fell 14.2% YoY to 76,304 units in August 2024. This marks the 14th consecutive month of decline due to weak demand. GAIKINDO expects total domestic sales to reach 1.1 million units in 2024.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, GAIKINDO, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.6789% – 6.8139% for Tomorrow. Recommendations: FR0062, FR0088, FR0093, FR0091, FR0087, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.