Global Market Update
- On October 11th, 2024, the US 10-Year Government Bond yield closed at 4.1003%, an increase of 3.95-bps compared to the previous close.
- Singapore’s GDP grew by 4.1% YoY in Q3-2024, up from 2.9% in Q2, driven by a 6.6% rise in goods-producing industries, with manufacturing up 7.5% and construction up 3.1%, while the services sector grew by 3.3%.
- In September 2024, China’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, the lowest since June, raising deflation concerns. Non-food prices dropped 0.2%, with transport costs declining further due to lower oil prices.
Sources: Statistics Singapore, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg, and Trading Economics.
Domestic Market Update
- On October 14th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.7281%.
- Indonesia’s external debt (ULN) in August 2024 remained under control, totaling $425.1 billion, growing by 7.3% YoY. This increase came from both the public and private sectors. The debt position was also influenced by the weakening of the US dollar against most global currencies, including the Rupiah.
- PEFINDO has affirmed its idA rating for PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TOBA: IJ) but revised the outlook from stable to negative due to TBS’s planned divestment of PT Minahasa Cahaya Lestari and PT Gorontalo Listrik Perdana. These subsidiaries contribute significantly to TBS’s long-term revenue through contracts with PT PLN, and their sale could weaken TBS’s business and financial profiles.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, PHEI, and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.6608% – 6.7954% for Tomorrow. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0100, FR0062, FR0088, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.