Global Market Update
- On November 18, 2024, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.4138%.
- The Euro Area’s trade surplus grew to €12.5 billion in September 2024, up from €9.8 billion a year earlier, exceeding forecasts of €7.9 billion. Exports rose 0.6% to €237.8 billion, while imports fell 0.6% to €225.3 billion.
- The U.S. saw a net Treasury International Capital inflow of $398.4 billion in September 2024, up from $75.9 billion in August. Foreign private inflows totaled $341.1 billion, while official inflows reached $57.3 billion. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose for the fifth straight month to a record $8.673 trillion, 15.4% higher year-on-year. Meanwhile, U.S. residents invested $47.1 billion in foreign long-term securities.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On November 18th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.9445%.
- Fitch Ratings has assigned a ‘BBB’ rating to Indonesia’s proposed USD sovereign sukuk, issued via PPSI-III, driven by Indonesia’s Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘BBB’ with a Stable Outlook. The rating reflects the view that a default on the sukuk would equate to a default by Indonesia. The sukuk program size will increase from USD35 billion to USD45 billion.
- PEFINDO affirmed PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk’s idA rating with a negative outlook, reflecting concerns over potential business and financial weakening after divesting PT MCL and PT GLP. TBS is acquiring Sembcorp Environment Pte Ltd (SEPL), a Singapore-based waste management firm, with completion expected in H1 2025. The company’s 2023 Bond I rating was also affirmed at idA.
Sources: Fitch Ratings, PEFINDO, PHEI, and Bloomberg.
Market ProjectionWe predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8160% – 6.9537% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0100, FR0062, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.