Global Market Update
- On June 13th, 2024, the yield on the US 10-year Government Bond closed at a level of 4.2442%, marking a decrease of 7.18 bps from the previous day.
- The Bank of Japan kept its primary short-term interest rate unchanged at around 0%-0.1% during its June meeting, as widely anticipated. At the same time, the board signaled potential plans to taper bond purchases after its July gathering, with board member Nakamura Toyoaki dissenting, aiming to allow long-term rates to move more freely
- In Q1-2024, the EU employment rate was 75.7%, marking a slight increase of 0.2% from Q4-2023.
Sources: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, Trading Economics and Binaartha.
Domestic Market Update
- On June 14th, 2024, the yield curve for the 10-year Indonesia Government Bond remained closed at a level of 7.0407%, marking a slight increase of 4.55 basis points compared to yesterday.
- Indonesia’s External Debt (ULN) decreased in April 2024. The ULN position in April 2024 was recorded at $398.3 billion, a decrease compared to the ULN position in March 2024, which was $404.8 billion. Annually, Indonesia’s ULN experienced a contraction of 1.5% YoY after growing by 0.2% YoY in March 2024. This decline was attributed to both public and private sector ULN.
- Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s elected President, plans to boost spending by gradually increasing borrowing over five years. This would raise the country’s debt by 2% of its economic output annually. By the end of his term, Indonesia’s debt could approach half of its yearly economic output, the highest level since 2004.
Sources: Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, PHEI, and Binaartha.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.5106% – 7.1959% for next Wednesday. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0097, FR062, and FR0098.