Global Market Update
- On July 4th, 2024, the yield on US 10-year government bonds remained stable at 4.4316% compared to the previous day, due to the Independence Day holiday
- Retail sales in Singapore rose by 2.2% YoY in May 2024, recovering from a 1.2% fall in April. The highest growth came from food and alcohol, which grew by 11.1%, compared to 3.9% in April
- The US economy is projected to gain 190,000 jobs in June 2024, down from the 272,000 added in May, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4%, marking the highest level since January 2022.
Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Singapore, Trading Economics and Binaartha.
Domestic Market Update
- On July 5th , 2024, the yield curve for the 10-year Indonesia Government Bond closed at a level of 7.0658%, marking a slight decrease of 1.25-bps compared to yesterday.
- In June 2024, Indonesia’s Official Reserve Assets rose to USD140.2 billion from USD139.0 billion in May 2024. This increase was driven by tax and service receipts, along with government foreign loan withdrawals.
- According to a report released on July 4th, 2024, at 12:44 ET, Fitch Ratings downgraded PT Perusahaan Pengelola Aset’s (PPA) National Long-Term Rating from ‘AA(idn)’ to ‘AA-(idn)’, with a Stable Outlook. Concurrently, the rating on PPA’s senior unsecured notes was also lowered from ‘AA(idn)’ to ‘AA-(idn)’. This downgrade resulted from Fitch’s reassessment of key risk factors following updates to its criteria for rating Government-Related Entities in January 2024. Importantly, this change does not indicate a shift in PPA’s business profile
Sources: Bank Indonesia, Fitch Ratings, PHEI, and Binaartha.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.4184% – 7.0940% for next Monday. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0062, FR093, and FR0088.