Global Market Update
- On June 28th, 2024, the yield on the US 10-year Government Bond closed at 4.3961%, marking an increase of 10.97-bps compared to the previous close.
- The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in June 2024 from 51.7 in May, beating expectations of 51.2. This is the highest level since May 2021. Factory activity has increased for eight months in a row, with production hitting a two-year high and new orders rising for the eleventh consecutive month.
- In June 2024, Japan’s consumer confidence rose to 36.4 from May’s low of 36.2, missing expectations of 36.5. Households felt more positive about income growth (40.6 vs 39.9 in May) and buying durable goods (29.6 vs 29.0). However, confidence declined for job prospects (41.7 vs 42.0) and overall livelihood (33.8 vs 33.9).
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global, Cabinet Office-Japan, Trading Economics and Binaartha.
Domestic Market Update
- On the first day of July 2024, the yield curve for the 10-year Indonesia Government Bond closed at a level of 7.0690%, marking a slight increase of 0.7 basis points compared to Friday.
- In June 2024, the annual inflation rate was 2.51%, as indicated by a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 106.28. This inflation resulted from price increases across various expenditure groups, notably food, beverages, and tobacco, which rose by 4.95%. Additionally, the monthly deflation rate in June 2024 was 0.08%, while the year-to-date inflation rate up to June 2024 stood at 1.07%.
- The S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.7 in June 2024 from 52.1 in May. This marks the 34th straight month of factory activity growth but shows the slowest growth since May 2023. Output also grew at its weakest rate in 13 months.
Sources: BPS, S&P Global, PHEI, Trading Economics, and Binaartha.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.5465% – 7.2555% for next Monday. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0097, FR092, and FR0067.