Global Market Update
- On July 12th, 2024, the yield on US 10-year government bonds closed at 4.1829%, down by 2.72-bps compared to the previous day.
- The Chinese economy expanded 4.7% YoY in Q2-2024, missing market forecasts of 5.1% and slowing from a 5.3% growth in Q1. It was the weakest yearly advance since Q1-2023, amid a persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, falling yuan, and trade frictions with the West.
- In May 2024, the trade surplus in the Netherlands expanded to EUR 11.95 billion from EUR 9.99 billion a year earlier, driven by higher exports and reduced imports. Compared to the previous year, exports increased by 0.8% to EUR 70.70 billion, buoyed by greater sales to countries outside the EU (up 8.1%).
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Statistics Netherlands, and Trading Economics.
Domestic Market Update
- On July 15th , 2024, the yield curve for the 10-year Indonesia Government Bond closed at a level of 7.0313%, marking a slight increase of 11.18-bps compared to last Friday.
- In June 2024, Indonesia’s trade surplus decreased to $2.39 billion from $3.45 billion the previous year, below expectations of $2.98 billion. This was the smallest surplus since February, with exports rising by 1.17%, lower than the anticipated 5.1% increase, while imports grew by 7.58%, surpassing the expected 5.50% rise.
- Indonesia’s External Debt (ULN) remained manageable in May 2024. ULN stood at $407.3 billion, showing a growth of 1.8% YoY. The growth was mainly due to higher inflows into international and domestic government bonds (SBN), reflecting positive investor confidence in Indonesia’s economic prospects
Sources: BPS, Bank Indonesia, PHEI, and Trading Economics.
Market ProjectionWe predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.6171% – 7.3137% for tomorrow. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0062, FR0093, and FR0088.