Global Market Update
- On January 15th, 2025, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.6531%.
- UK annual inflation dropped to 2.5% in December 2024, slightly below the forecast. Prices for restaurants, hotels, and recreation slowed, while food prices stayed steady. Transport costs fell less due to higher fuel and used car prices. Housing prices rose a bit more.
- US inflation rose to 2.9% in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November, as expected. Higher energy costs (-0.5% vs -3.2%) and increases in food (2.5%) and transportation (7.3%) drove the rise.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office for National Statistics – UK, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On January 15th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 7.2617%.
- On January 14-15, 2025, Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to cut the BI Rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, with the Deposit Facility at 5.00% and Lending Facility at 6.50%. This move aligns with controlled inflation forecasts for 2025-2026, a stable Rupiah, and the need to support economic growth.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.24 billion in December 2024, down from USD 3.29 billion a year earlier, below market expectations of USD 3.79 billion. The decline was driven by an 11.07% rise in imports, exceeding forecasts, while exports grew by 4.78%, the weakest in six months. For 2024, the trade surplus was USD 31.04 billion, down from USD 36.89 billion in 2023, as exports rose 2.29% and imports increased by 5.31%.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, BPS and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 7.1201% – 7.2640% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0097, FR0105, FR0092, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.