Global Market Update
- On February 3rd, 2025, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.5550%.
- China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.1 in January 2025 from 50.5 in December, below market expectations. While output and new orders grew, foreign demand shrank, and employment fell sharply, increasing backlogs. Input costs stabilized, but selling prices dropped the most since July 2023. Business sentiment improved, with policies since September 2024 showing positive effects.
- The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 51.2 in January 2025, indicating modest sector recovery. New business inflows rose for the first time since June 2024, while export orders declined.
Sources: S&P Global, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On February 3rd, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 7.0991%.
- In January 2025, Indonesia’s y-on-y inflation was 0.76% (CPI 105.99), with the highest in Papua Pegunungan (4.55%) and the lowest in Sulawesi Tengah (0.02%). Deflation was deepest in Gorontalo (-1.52%). Inflation was driven by rising food (+3.69%) and personal care (+7.27%) prices, while housing and utilities dropped (-8.75%). Monthly and year-to-date deflation stood at 0.76%, while core inflation was 2.36% y-on-y.
- Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in January 2025, the highest since May 2024, driven by strong output and new orders, including foreign demand. Firms increased buying activity ahead of Ramadan, while employment saw its biggest rise in 2.5 years. Despite this, backlogs grew modestly. Input costs rose but at a slower pace, and output price inflation remained low.
Sources:BPS, S&P Global, and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.9875% – 7.1287% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0097, FR0105, FR0092, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.