Global Market Update
- On February 17th, 2025, the U.S. market closed due to Presidents Day 2025.
- Japan’s economy grew just 0.1% in 2024, down from 1.5% in 2023, the slowest since 2020. The slowdown was due to natural disasters, yen depreciation, and global trade issues. Private consumption fell, business investment grew slowly, and exports had their weakest growth since 2020.
- China’s vehicle sales dropped by 0.6% YoY in January 2025, the first decline in four months, mainly due to the Lunar New Year holiday. However, new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose by 29.4% to 944 thousand units. Car sales are expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025, with NEVs predicted to rise by 24.4%. Last year, total vehicle sales grew by 4.5%, down from 12% in 2023.
Sources: Cabinet Office – Japan, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On February 17th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.8229%.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus grew to USD 3.45 billion in January 2025, exceeding expectations. This was due to a 2.67% drop in imports, affected by the rupiah depreciation, weaker purchasing power, and holidays. Exports grew 4.88%, marking ten months of growth but at the slowest pace in seven months. For 2024, the trade surplus dropped to USD 31.04 billion from USD 36.89 billion in 2023.
- Indonesia’s external debt fell to USD 424.8 billion in Q4 2024 from USD 428.1 billion in Q3 2024. Annual debt growth slowed to 4.0% YoY from 8.3% in Q3. The decline was due to lower public and private sector debt, along with a stronger US dollar against the Rupiah.
Sources: BPS, Bank Indonesia, PHEI and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8081% – 6.9457% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0100, FR0100, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.