Global Market Update
- On August 8th, 2024, the yield on US 10-year Government Bonds continued its daily increase, rising by another 4.46 basis points to a level of 3.9877%.
- China’s annual inflation rate rose to 0.5% in July 2024 from 0.2% in June, surpassing forecasts of 0.3% and marking the highest rate since February. This was the sixth consecutive month of inflation, with food prices stabilizing after a 12-month decline, influenced by adverse weather.
- The unemployment rate in Malaysia edged down to 3.3% in June 2024 from 3.4% in the same month last year, remaining steady for the eighth consecutive month.
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Department of Statistics – Malaysia, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On August 9th, 2024, the yield on the 10-year Indonesian Government Bonds continued its daily decrease, dropping 18.60 basis points to a level of 6.8349%. Meanwhile, the ICBI reached its highest level again, at 387.2557.
- Retail sales in July 2024 are projected to increase, with the Real Sales Index reaching 212.0 and a 4.3% YoY rise. This growth is driven by sectors such as Food, Beverages, Tobacco, and Clothing. However, monthly sales are expected to fall by 7.4% due to decreased demand in these categories and other sectors following the Eid-al-Adha holiday.
- Fitch Ratings upgraded MAIPARK’s outlook to Positive from Stable, citing improved financial performance and stronger capitalization. Fitch expects the reinsurer to sustain profitability despite catastrophe risks, thanks to better retrocession arrangements. Capital buffers are projected to support its focus on earthquake risk over the next 12 to 24 months.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, Fitch Ratings, Bloomberg and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.7817% – 6.9187% for next Monday. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0081, FR0100, FR0091, and FR0097.