Global Market Update
- On August 1st, 2024, the yield on US 10-year government bonds continued its slight decline, standing at 3.9760%, down by 5.36 basis points from the previous day.
- The unemployment rate in the United States climbed to 4.3% in July 2024 from 4.1% the month before, marking the highest level since October 2021 and exceeding market predictions that it would hold steady at 4.1%.
- South Korea’s annual inflation rate increased to 2.6% in July 2024, up from 2.4% in June and surpassing the 2.5% forecast. This rise ended three months of easing price pressures and cast doubt on the possibility of imminent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Korea, especially as the economy slowed and manufacturing weakened.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Korea,Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On August 2nd, 2024, the yield on the 10-year Indonesian government bond closed at 6.9083%, a slight decrease of 9.2 basis points from the previous day. Meanwhile, the ICBI continued to rise, reaching a new high of 385.6435.
- Based on transaction data from July 29 to August 1, 2024, non-residents recorded a net purchase of IDR 10.27 trillion, consisting of a net purchase of IDR 5.77 trillion in government securities (SBN), IDR 2.19 trillion in Bank Indonesia Certificates (SRBI), and IDR 2.31 trillion in stocks.
- Fitch Ratings considers PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero), or IIGF, as closely associated with the Indonesian government (BBB/Stable). This is due to the government’s strong commitment to support IIGF, which is vital for advancing the country’s economic development through infrastructure projects.
Sources: S&P Global Ratings, Bank Indonesia, Fitch Ratings, and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.9042% – 7.0437% for next Monday. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0081, FR0100, FR0091, and FR0097.