Buy, 32% upside

12th August 2026 

Price Rp 7,525

Target price Rp 9,950

Investment Considerations

Positive  Growth Across all Major Business Segments

• ICBP recorded sales growth of 15.7% YoY in 2Q26, despite a 7.2% QoQ decline, with revenue reaching IDR20.15 trillion. This brought 1H26 sales to IDR41.8 trillion, up 11.3% YoY, supported by volume expansion across all major business segments.
• Domestic sales remained the largest contributor, reaching IDR12.9 trillion in 2Q26, up 8.7% YoY. Export revenue grew strongly by 30.0% YoY, driven by higher sales in the US and Asian markets, while the Middle East and Africa also delivered solid growth of 32.8% YoY.
• The Noodles segment remained the key earnings driver, with revenue increasing 15.0% YoY to IDR15.04 trillion in 2Q26. For 1H26, revenue reached IDR31.17 trillion, up 11.4% YoY, supported by 5% volume growth across both domestic and overseas markets. However, segment EBIT margin moderated to 21.7% in 2Q26 from 23.3% previously.
• The Dairy segment delivered the strongest margin improvement. Revenue increased 26.6% YoY to IDR2.75 trillion in 2Q26 and grew 15.3% YoY in 1H26, driven by double-digit growth in liquid milk volumes and low-single-digit growth in condensed milk. Dairy exports also recorded healthy growth, particularly across Asian markets. EBIT margin improved sequentially to 9.3% from 3.2%.
• The Snack Foods segment recorded revenue growth of 11.3% YoY to IDR1.26 trillion in 2Q26, bringing 1H26 revenue to IDR2.55 trillion, up 8.8% YoY. Growth was supported by healthy volumes across most categories. However, EBIT margin declined to 2.2% from 6.7% in the previous quarter, mainly due to higher packaging costs.
• The Food Seasonings segment recorded revenue growth of 8.9% YoY to IDR1.14 trillion in 2Q26 and 5.8% YoY in 1H26, supported by 6% volume growth. EBIT margin declined to 13.3% from 18.4%.
• The Beverages segment recorded modest revenue growth of 3.4% YoY to IDR382 billion in 2Q26, bringing 1H26 revenue to IDR743 billion. Performance continued to be affected by product mix and lower ASP, while segment EBIT margin softened to 11.5% from 13.6%.
• Meanwhile, Nutrition & Special Foods posted strong revenue growth of 31.4% YoY to IDR373 billion in 2Q26, bringing 1H26 revenue to IDR750 billion, up 16.4% YoY. Growth was supported by a 10% increase in volume, although EBIT margin declined to 6.1% from 8.0%.
• Looking ahead, management maintained its FY2026 sales guidance of mid-single-digit growth and expects growth to remain primarily volume-driven.

Q2 2026 Results: FX Loss Weighs on Reported Earnings

• ICBP’s reported net profit declined 60.8% YoY to IDR1.13 trillion in 2Q26, mainly due to a significant foreign exchange loss. The company recorded an FX loss of IDR2.37 trillion, compared with an FX gain of IDR951 billion in the corresponding period last year. As a result, net profit margin declined to 5.6%.
• Underlying profitability, however, remained resilient. Core profit increased 7.1% YoY to IDR2.45 trillion, indicating that the sharp decline in reported earnings was primarily driven by foreign exchange movements rather than deterioration in the underlying business.
• Gross profit increased 17.0% YoY to IDR6.8 trillion, while gross margin improved to 33.8%, demonstrating ICBP’s ability to manage higher input costs. Cost of goods sold increased 15.0% YoY, reflecting a 16.0% increase in raw material costs and a 15.8% rise in production expenses.
• Overall, the combination of double-digit revenue growth, resilient core earnings, and broad-based volume expansion indicates that ICBP’s underlying operating performance remained healthy despite significant FX-related pressure on reported net profit

Valuation: Maintained Buy, TP IDR 9,950 (+32% Upside)

• We maintain our BUY recommendation on ICBP with a 12-month target price of IDR9,950, implying 32% upside, based on a 12x forward P/E.
• Our positive outlook is supported by broad-based volume growth across major business segments, strong export momentum, selective category recovery, and resilient underlying profitability despite foreign exchange volatility.