Global Market Update
- On October 21st, 2024, the US 10-Year Government Bond yield closed at 4.1956%, an increase of 11.28-bps compared to the previous close.
- The People’s Bank of China cut key lending rates in October to support the weakening economy. The one-year loan prime rate was reduced by 25-bps to 3.1%, and the five-year rate, affecting mortgages, dropped to 3.6%. This follows a similar rate cut in July. Governor Pan Gongsheng hinted at further rate reductions and a possible cut to the reserve requirement ratio for banks in Q4.
- Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, down from 5.9% in Q2. The services sector slowed (5.1% vs 5.9%), and agricultural growth also weakened (4.0% vs 7.2%) due to a drop in the fishing sub-sector. Additionally, mining and quarrying contracted (-3.4% vs 2.7%) due to declines in natural gas and crude oil production.
Sources: People’s Bank of China, Department of Statistics – Malaysia, Bloomberg, and Trading Economics.
Domestic Market Update
- On October 21st, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.7080%.
- Bank Indonesia’s Banking Survey indicates positive growth in new loans during Q3 2024, with a Weighted Net Balance (WNB) of 80.6%. The growth was primarily driven by consumer loans, especially mortgages. New loan disbursement is expected to continue rising in Q4 2024, with a WNB forecast of 88.3%. The projected YoY loan growth for Q3 2024 is 11.4%.
- Based on KSEI’s information, the government will pay its first coupon of SUKUK NEGARA RITEL SERI SR021T5, 6.45% p.a, on November 11th, 2024.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, KSEI, PHEI, and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.6487% – 6.7831% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0062, FR0093, FR0088, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.