Global Market Update
- On December 16th, 2024, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.3967%.
- The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI rose to 56.6 in December 2024, up from 54.9 in November, marking the strongest private sector growth since March 2022. This was driven by a surge in services activity (58.5, the highest since October 2021, up from 56.1), while manufacturing continued to contract (48.3, a three-month low, down from 49.7). Demand strengthened, leading to the fastest rise in new orders since April 2022, and employment grew for the first time in five months.
- China’s industrial production grew by 5.4% year-on-year in November 2024, surpassing October’s 5.3%. Manufacturing growth accelerated to 6.0%, while utilities and mining grew at a slower pace, at 1.6% and 4.2%, respectively.
Sources: S&P Global, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On December 16th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 7.0660%.
- Indonesia’s external debt (ULN) decreased in October 2024, totaling $423.4 billion, down from $428.5 billion in September 2024. Year-on-year, external debt grew by 7.7%, slowing from 8.5% in September. The decline came from both public and private sector debt.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus soared to $4.42 billion in November 2024, up from $2.41 billion a year ago and above the $2.21 billion forecast. This was the largest surplus since July, driven by a 9.14% rise in exports, with strong shipments to the US (20.75%), China (15.47%), ASEAN (8.08%), and the EU (6.57%). Imports, however, were nearly flat, rising just 0.01%, far below the expected 6.15%.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, BPS, and PHEI.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.9330% – 7.0730% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0100, FR0062, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI025T3.