Global Market Update
- On October 14th, 2024, the US 10-Year Government Bond yield closed at 4.1003%.
- The UK’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% from June to August 2024, down from 4.1% in the previous period, meeting market expectations. This is the lowest rate since January, with 141,000 fewer unemployed people, bringing the total to 1.39 million.
- In August 2024, Japan’s industrial production fell 3.3% MoM, the fifth decline this year, following a 3.1% increase in July. The decrease was driven by lower output in motor vehicles (-10.7%). Yearly, production contracted 4.9%, reversing a 2.9% gain in July.
Sources: Office for National Statistics – UK, Ministry of Economy Trade & Industry (METI) – Japan, Bloomberg, and Trading Economics.
Domestic Market Update
- On October 15th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.7297%.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus in September 2024 decreased to USD 3.26 billion, slightly down from USD 3.40 billion a year earlier but above market forecasts. Exports rose 6.44% YoY, driven by shipments to key markets like the US, Japan, China, ASEAN, and the EU. Imports increased by 8.55% YoY, below forecasts.
- In Q3-2024, Indonesia’s foreign direct investment (FDI), excluding finance and oil & gas, rose by 18.55% year-on-year to IDR 232.65 trillion ($14.94 billion), the highest since early 2023. Most investment went to mining and metal refining, driven by a stable economy post-February elections. Major investors included Singapore, Hong Kong, and China. Overall investments increased by 15.3% to IDR 431.48 trillion.
Sources: BPS, Kementerian Investasi/BKPM, PHEI, and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.6781% – 6.8130% for Tomorrow. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0100, FR0062, FR0088, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.