Global Market Update
- On November 8, 2024, the U.S. 10-year government bond yield closed at 4.3043%.
- The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25–bps to 4.5%-4.75% in November 2024, following a larger 50 basis point reduction in September. Chair Powell emphasized that rate decisions will be data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis. He also suggested a pause in December remains possible, depending on upcoming data, while stating that the recent Trump election victory won’t influence near-term policy decisions.
- China’s annual inflation rate was 0.3% in October 2024, down from 0.4% in September, marking the lowest level since June. This drop, despite recent government stimulus, highlights growing deflation risks amid a slowing economy.
Sources: Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On November 8th, 2024, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.8585%.
- On November 8, 2024, the Indonesian government launched two sukuk options for individual investors: the ST013T2 (2-year) with a 6.40% rate and the Green Sukuk ST013T4 (4-year) with a 6.50% rate, available until December 4. These sukuk aim to diversify APBN financing, offer safe investment options, grow the local investor base, support Islamic finance, and strengthen the capital market.
- Throughout 2024, based on settlement data up to November 4, non-residents recorded a net purchase of IDR 38.51 trillion in the stock market, IDR 38.86 trillion in the government bond (SBN) market, and IDR 192.99 trillion in SRBI.
Sources: DJPPR Kemenkeu, Bank Indonesia, PHEI, and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.7666% – 6.9032% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0100, FR0062, FR0103, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.