Global Market Update
- On February 6th, 2025, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.4342%.
- Australia’s trade surplus narrowed to AUD 5.09 billion in December 2024, down from AUD 6.79 billion in November, missing expectations of AUD 7 billion. Exports grew by 1.1% to AUD 44.03 billion, driven by metal ores, while imports rose 5.9% to AUD 38.94 billion, led by capital goods.
- The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.5% in February 2025, its third cut since August. All nine MPC members backed the move, with two favoring a 50bps cut. The Bank signaled a gradual easing pace, citing slower growth and stubborn inflation, while lowering its 2025 growth forecast amid weaker-than-expected economic activity.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bank of England, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- In February 6th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.9428%.
- Indonesia’s economy grew 5.02% YoY in Q4 2024, bringing full-year growth to 5.03%. Bank Indonesia and the government will continue policies to support 2025 growth, projected at 4.7–5.5%. Growth was driven by higher household spending, strong investment, government spending, election-related activities, and rising exports due to strong trade demand and tourism.
- PEFINDO has affirmed an idA rating for PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TBS) and its 2023 Bond I, with a negative outlook. The outlook reflects concerns over potential delays or cancellation of TBS’ planned acquisition, which could weaken its credit profile. Sources: BPS, Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, and PHEI.
Sources: PHEI, BPS, Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.9385% – 7.078% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0062, FR0103, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.