BUY 21% Upside

25th June 2026

Current price Rp 3490

Target price Rp 4230

Investment Consideration

Higher Tin Prices and Production Growth Drive earnings Expansion

• TINS delivered a strong operational and financial performance in 1Q26, supported by higher tin ore production, increased refined tin output, stronger sales volumes, and a significant improvement in average selling prices (ASP).
• Tin ore production increased 96% YoY to 6,312 tons Sn in 1Q26, while refined tin production rose 82% YoY to 5,630 metric tons. Tin metal sales volume also increased substantially by 113% YoY to 6,009 metric tons.
• The strong recovery in production and sales was complemented by a sharp increase in ASP, which reached USD 49,221 per ton, representing a 51% YoY increase and one of the highest pricing levels achieved by the company in recent years.
• The positive momentum continued into 2Q26, with LME tin prices reaching USD 57,960 per ton in June 2026. The rally was supported by expectations of rising demand from AI-related infrastructure, data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, and broader electronics applications, alongside persistent supply-side constraints in key producing regions.
• Management targets tin production of 30,000 metric tons in 2026, representing growth of 61% YoY, while sales volume is expected to reach 25,000 metric tons, up 50% YoY. The production target reflects management’s confidence in operational improvements and stronger market conditions.

Q1 2026: Margin Expansion Driven by Higher ASP

• TINS reported revenue of IDR 5.46 trillion in 1Q26, increasing 161% YoY, driven by higher tin prices and stronger sales volumes.
• COGS increased by +96% to IDR 3.35 trillion due to higher volume. Results Cost of goods sold increased 96% YoY to IDR 3.35 trillion, mainly reflecting higher production and sales volumes. Cash costs rose only modestly by 3% YoY to USD 21,499 per ton, primarily due to higher fuel and operating input costs. However, the increase in ASP significantly outpaced cost inflation, resulting in gross profit margin expanding to 39%, compared with 18% in 1Q25.
• Net income surged 1,184% YoY to IDR 1.50 trillion, while net profit margin improved sharply to 27%, compared with only 6% in the corresponding period last year.
• Management currently guides for cash costs of approximately USD 21,000–21,500 per ton. Nevertheless, potential upside risks to operating costs remain, particularly if the proposed mineral royalty framework is implemented. Additional cost pressures may also arise from higher non-subsidized diesel prices, which have increased from IDR 14,000 to IDR 24,000 per liter.
• Beyond its core tin business, TINS continues to explore opportunities in rare earth elements (REE). The company has entered into a cooperation agreement with PT Perusahaan Mineral Nasional (PERMINAS) under the Conditional Framework titled Sovereign Strategic Mineral Cooperation Framework Pengolahan Slag Timah, Monasit & REE/LTJ Bangka. The partnership focuses on the processing of tin slag, monazite, and rare earth elements in Bangka Belitung.
• The agreement became effective on 20 May 2026. While management views the initiative as strategically attractive, the project remains at an early stage of development. Access to processing technology remains a key challenge, as rare earth processing capabilities are concentrated in only a limited number of countries globally

Valuation: Maintain BUY TP 4,230

• We maintain our BUY recommendation on TINS with a target price of IDR 4,280 per share, implying 21% upside potential. Our valuation is supported by strong tin prices, rising production volumes, improving profitability, and favorable long-term supply-demand fundamentals in the global tin market. The target price implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.1x and reflects our expectation that TINS will continue benefiting from elevated tin prices, operational improvements, and expanding exposure to strategic minerals over the medium term.