53% potential Upside, BUY

23rd April 2026

Current Price Rp 3270

Target price Rp5000

Investment Consideration

Tariff Adjustments as Key Revenue Driver

• PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) recorded steady growth in toll and operating revenue in FY2025, increasing 5.7% YoY to IDR 18.73 trillion. In 4Q2025, revenue rose 8.4% YoY (+4.9% QoQ) to IDR 5.28 trillion, supported by tariff adjustments implemented throughout 2024–2025, the operation of the Jogja–Solo toll road sections (JMJ 1.1 and 1.2A), and the reconsolidation of the Gempol–Pandaan toll road following the Dinfra buyback in December 2024.
• As of FY2025, JSMR has implemented tariff adjustments across six toll roads, with an additional three adjustments completed in 1Q2026. For FY2026, the company targets around 20 tariff adjustments, with 12 expected in 1H2026 and a further five in 2H2026.
• Traffic volume showed gradual recovery, increasing 4% QoQ in 4Q2025, while full-year traffic grew modestly by 0.35% YoY. Mature toll roads recorded a slight contraction (−0.1% YoY), whereas newer toll roads delivered stronger growth (+2.6% YoY).
• Management maintains its FY2026 guidance of 4%–6% revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 65%–67%, supported by continued tariff adjustments and gradual traffic normalization.

2025 Result: Stable Core Profitability

• JSMR reported FY2025 net profit of IDR 3.6 trillion (−19.4% YoY), mainly due to the absence of a one-off gain recorded in the previous year.
• On a normalized basis, core profitability remained stable at IDR 3.6 trillion, with a solid core net margin of 18.2%, despite the ongoing ramp-up of new toll road assets.
• EBITDA increased 5.2% YoY to IDR 13.3 trillion, supported by contributions from newly operational toll roads and tariff adjustments. However, EBITDA margin declined slightly to 67%, reflecting higher operating and maintenance (O&M) expenses associated with meeting minimum service level standards required for tariff adjustments.
• Total expenses rose 7.5% YoY to IDR 10.56 trillion, while cash expenses increased 6.8% YoY to IDR 6.54 trillion, primarily driven by higher O&M costs.
• Notably, several tariff adjustments were delayed and realized in early 2026, which may provide additional earnings support going forward. Management also expects improved network connectivity from newly completed toll road sections to enhance traffic flow and support stronger financial performance over the medium term.

Valuation: 53% Upside, Buy

• We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,000, implying 8× 2027F P/E and 53% upside.
• The investment case is supported by stable revenue growth, a strong pipeline of tariff adjustments, margin improvement potential, and continued balance sheet deleveraging.